The presidential primary of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) is becoming more interesting by the day among the aspirants and party gladiators who have signified their intention to vie for its ticket.
So far, the leading aspirants are a former governor of Lagos State, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the Vice President, Professor Yemi Osinbajo, Ekiti State Governor, Dr. Kayode Fayemi, the immediate past Rivers State Governor, Mr. Rotimi Amaechi making up the pack.
A critical appraisal of recent developments within the party reveals that Tinubu seems to enjoy in a commanding lead in virtually all the corners of the country as he seems to have his machinery well oiled to go for the kill when the whistle is blasted.
Although, the Progressives Governors and some powerful forces in presidency are well against him but they lack the number and spread to stop him, also they are divided among themselves as they couldn’t forge or present a common front to match his bid.
Let’s examine the happening in the Six geopolitical Zones.
South West: This is Asiwaju’s zone and he would sweep all the state delegates here except in Ekiti that would be share between him and Fayemi. Sen Babafemi Ojodu, Senator Bamidele Opeyemi are Tinubu foot soldiers in the state ready to battle Fayemi for Jagaban.
Though, VP Osinbajo is from the region but he won’t contest against Tinubu under any circumstances except if Tinubu step down for him but presently things doesn’t look so. Osinbanjo is expected to stand by Tinubu to the end.
South East: Tinubu have a slight edge above others in this zone.
His key men are Governor Hope Uzodinma, Senator Chris Ngige, a former Senate President, Senator Ken Nnamani. Also, recently, the national caretaker committee of the APC declared Uzodinma as the leader of the party in the zone. Amaechi and others may pick few delegates here.
South South: This is another comfortable zone for Tinubu, he may likely win all the state delegates here except in Rivers where Amaechi hails from but the likes of Senator Magnus Abe would deliver some delegates to Tinubu in the state.
All the gladiators of the party in the region are Tinubu’s men such as the immediate past national Chairman of the party, Mr. Adams Oshiomhole in Edo, Godswill Akpabio in Akwa Ibom, Mr. Timpre Sylva in Bayelsa and Deputy Senate President, Senator Ovie Omo-Agege in Delta State.
North Central: Niger, Kwara, Benue. Nasarawa states would root for Tinubu with gladiators like former governor George Akume taking charge in the zone. Plateau State may queue behind Amaechi or Fayemi but it depends on how things play out at the end.
Kogi state delegates may be free for all but in the event the governor realised he is alone in the wilderness and make a volte-face. The governor may switch to the popular side, of course Tinubu camp to save face.
North East: This zone is a settled case as far as Tinubu men are concern. Almost all the gladiators in the party from the zone have settled for Jagaban. Ranging from Borno State Governor Babagana Zullum, Senate President Ahmed Lawan are leading Tinubu’s supports from the zone. Many are of the believe that the chairman of the caretaker committee and the Yobe State Governor, Mai Mala Buni would soon openly declare for Tinubu.
North West: This is the largest zone with the highest delegates in the country. Tinubu is well comfortable in this zone having secured the supports of key gladiators from the area. Kano, Sokoto, Katsina are all for him. He will also share Kebbi, Jigawa, Kaduna and Zamfara. But in all Tinubu is leading comfortably.
Governor Ganduje in Kano, Senator Aliyu Wamako in Sokoto and Katsina State, Governor, Aminu Masari are leading the Tinubu war front in the zone.
The former Lagos state governor is well ahead of others in the battle for the party presidential ticket in 2023.
Although, the anti Tinubu forces are also not resting to see that Tinubu doesn’t make it to the end. But as things look by the day, their efforts may be in futility as there is no law in stop him for now except if found guilty and convicted by a competent law court.
Tinubu is as good as being declared APC presidential candidate except if he steps down for another aspirant possibly VP Osinbajo and I doubt if that is on the table for now.